Where is your team going to finish in the regular season standings and be seeded in the playoffs? The Western Conference Playoff Picture table presents the probabilities that a team will win each playoff spot. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.
The Bucks are favored to repeat, and our model predicts they will also capture the No. 1 seed in the conference by four games over the next-closest competitor. The good news is that the Western Conference's skilled teams outside the playoff picture are going to get their fair shot at making the postseason. This season the playoff picture looks a bit different with the play-in tournament added.
Better winning percentage against teams eligible for playoffs in opposite conference . Better winning percentage against teams eligible for playoffs in own conference . There is a 1 in 166 or so chance that I will see you all at the parade. Even then, the model sees the 76ers as the second-best team in the East, in terms of win-loss record, point differential, chance at winning the conference and chance of winning the title. It's worth noting that last year's model loved the Sixers as well, and we know how that worked out. The Hawks, Nets and Celtics join those two teams in what amounts to a fairly clear top five.
The Hawks have the best projected regular-season record among the trio of teams behind the top two, but the worst conference and title odds. Better winning percentage against all teams with .500 or better record at the end of the season. Even with Jamal Murray's ACL injury, you could bet on the Denver Nuggets to have a successful regular season. With MVP Nikola Jokic leading the way, Denver will always contend for at least a top-four seed in the conference.
On top of that, their depth is extremely well-rounded, as they have players like Michael Porter, Aaron Gordon, Will Barton, and Monte Morris. Even though a lot depends on how Murray returns from his ACL injury, expect Denver to be the third seed. Westbrook is also going to make the team much better in the regular season as well. While there are some rotation problems that Frank Vogel will have to solve in the playoffs, Westbrook takes stress off of LeBron and will make the Lakers win more games.
The system allows the ten top teams in the Eastern and Western Conference standings to play their chances for a spot in the playoffs, making the end of the regular season more exciting. Like Oklahoma City, the Houston Rockets have a few young players to build on. Players like Jalen Green and Kevin Porter are going to be exciting to watch. The last-place team in this Western Conference is honestly a toss-up. Despite that, Houston is going to be fun to watch regardless of how bad their record is going to be. Who knows, perhaps Houston exceeds my expectation, as it's definitely possible that they could end up winning 30 games?
After making it to the NBA playoffs with a record, it's safe to assume that the Memphis Grizzlies will at least be back in the play-in tournament. They didn't go all-out in the offseason but did they add a nice piece in Steven Adams. On top of that, you can expect a player like Ja Morant or Jaren Jackson.
If the Grizzlies can stay healthy throughout the year, I expect them to make a pretty solid jump from last season. Despite Kawhi Leonard being out for most of the season, I expect Paul George to have an MVP-like season. Along with George, they have a relatively strong supporting cast, as they have players like Eric Bledsoe, Serge Ibaka, Terance Mann, Reggie Jackson, and. Without Leonard in the postseason last year, George averaged 29.6 points per game. Expect the Los Angeles Clippers in the NBA playoffs, even without Leonard. With the way their roster is constructed, the Golden State Warriors will once again be a threat during the regular season.
Stephen Curry will continue to play at an MVP level, and they added a few solid players like Andre Iguodala and Otto Porter. They may not make the best start, however, once Klay Thompson makes his return at around Christmas time, expect the Warriors to make a late run to end up fourth in the Western Conference. Ja Morant remains one of the most electrifying athletes in basketball, though he needs some polish to his game for Memphis to keep pace in the Western Conference. Morant shot just 45% from the field and 30% from three last season, and his 0.81 points per possession mark in the pick-and-roll ranked No. 21 of the 23 players to log at least 400 attempts. Defenses continue to severely sag off Morant, daring him to pull the trigger beyond the arc and near the foul line. This isn't an unsolvable problem for the Murray State product.
NBA history is littered with guards who grew as jump shooters through the first decade of their career. But as the crop of quality ball-handlers across the league continues to grow, a lack of growth from Morant could see both he and the Grizzlies stifled in the middle of the pack. The final two days of the regular season could have a significant impact on the playoff standings, especially since 10 teams in each conference will be given the opportunity to make the postseason. Each of the tied teams has a different winning percentage or point differential under the applicable tie-break criterion (a "complete" breaking of the tie).
Better winning percentage in all games among the tied teams. With the COVID-19 vaccines continuing rolling out, the NBA has no plans to bring back the bubble. The Play-In Tournament will be held at home arenas, with the highest-winning percentage teams hosting each game. The teams that finish Nos. 1-6 in each conference standings will qualify for the playoffs, while the teams that will finish Nos. 7-10 will take part in the Play-In Tournament. The Dallas Mavericks are always going to be in the playoff picture, as they have a 22-year old superstar in Luka Doncic. Despite having Doncic, Dallas doesn't have much else in order to take their team to the next level.
For the most part, the Mavericks are returning with a similar roster. Overall, it's good enough to keep them in the top five of the conference. Despite the fact that they're the oldest team in the NBA, they easily have the best roster in the Western Conference and perhaps maybe even in the league. The Lakers are on a mission this season to reclaim their top spot in the West, and it begins by getting the number one seed. As the Jazz jockey for position in the West, it's worth paying attention to the races for the bottom seeds to see who Utah could play in the first round. Looks at the opponents for your remaining games, their winning percentage on the road or at home, and whether or not either team is on the second night of a back to back.
What an interesting predicament the T-Wolves find themselves in for this upcomigng season. After firing their head of basketball operations, Gerson Rosas, the Timberwolves need to succeed in some way this year. Not only for the good of the franchise, but to keep superstar center Karl-Anthony Towns in what feels like a potential last season in Minnesota for him. Look for Towns to play out of his mind this year and finally take Minnesota to the playoffs, even if it is just a play-in spot. The loser from the No. 7 vs. No. 8 game and the winner from the No. 9 vs. No. 10 game will then play against each other. The winner of that game will be the No. 8 seed in the playoffs, and the loser will be eliminated from playoff contention.
The Celtics and Heat, for example, do actually have terrific coaches — but not the quality of role players to surround them with. They tried to make changes at the deadline to address that, and we'll see if Evan Fournier and Victor Oladipo, respectively, do enough to right their ships' sails. Denver should be able to steady the ship in Murray's absence. Jokić remains one of the most brilliant offensive bigs in league history, and he does have legitimate help with Aaron Gordon and the recently-maxed Michael Porter Jr. joining him in the frontcourt. Yet like last year, Denver's ceiling falls below the Finals with Murray out of the lineup. If he can slowly return to 100% by the postseason, we could have Finals games at a mile high.
Using our projections, we've predicted how the playoff standings would shake out based on simulating the final games of the regular season. Accused by some of benefiting from a playoff path softened by opponents' injuries when they reached the 2021 N.B.A. finals, the Suns' start this season answered that critique. Phoenix opened the season 1-3, then won 18 consecutive games, including a win over Golden State. They had positioned themselves as a worthy adversary to Golden State.
Through a quarter of the season, bettors and fans picking the Golden State Warriors to return to championship form will be happy. The Warriors are looking like their dynastic selves once again, with potentially more help on the way. The Phoenix Suns are showing their run to the Finals last season wasn't a fluke with an 18-game winning streak, while the Utah Jazz and Los Angeles Clippers have also impressed early in the season. Here's a look at the odds for each team to win the West after a quarter of the season, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Los Angeles Lakers (8-7) are the No. 7 seed, putting them outside of the latest playoff bracket. Would be in the same position as last season, hosting a game in the play-in tournament with a playoff spot on the line. The Magic are another young, rebuilding team that will not win many games this season.
Players like Jalen Suggs, Cole Anthony and Mohamed Bamba among others are excellent young talents that will give fans hope for the future. As for this season though, the Magic will be one of the worst teams in the league. The Raptors are another team that just don't have the talent for a playoff push.
Pascal Siakam will miss the beginning of the season and will probably spend a good portion of time acclimating himself again to the court when he gets back. The scoring responsibilities will fall on the shoulders of Fred VanVleet, who will probably post career highs in points and assists this year. However, other than VanVleet, the Raptors are just a bunch of young players and veterans like Scottie Barnes, Precious Achiuwa and Khem Birch.
The departure of former head coach Rick Carlisle will play a big role in Dallas' mediocre season this year. It should also be noted that Kristaps Porzingis cannot be trusted due to his injury history. It is just the Luka Doncic show in Dallas, and while he is a generational star, it will not be enough for the Mavericks to earn a top seed in the West.
The Spurs and Kings sit just behind the Warriors, with minimal but not de minimis postseason odds. They are each projected to finish at least four games back of the No. 10 seed, so there is some ground to make up. Meanwhile, the Rockets and Thunder are projected to own two of the three best odds in the lottery.
We next have to address the Warriors, who are projected to finish worse than they did last year and miss the play-in tournament entirely. And that's not because the model isn't accounting for Klay Thompson playing games. It's actually the opposite.5 RAPTOR penalizes players who suffer Achilles tears, as Thompson did prior to last season.
Throw in the fact that he was already coming off a torn ACL prior to that, and the model now views him as a net-negative player. We're hedging our bets some by guessing that he'll be back for half of his minutes during the Nets' playoff games, should they get that far. The No. 9 team will face the No. 10 team, and the winner will advance to play against the loser of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 game. The loser of the No. 9 vs. No. 10 game will be eliminated from playoff contention.
The No. 7 team will face the No. 8 team, and the winner will earn the No. 7 seed in the playoffs. The loser will still have one more opportunity to reach the playoffs. There is an added level of intrigue this year with the league implementing a new version of the play-in tournament, which was first seen inside the Florida "bubble" amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Instead of the traditional eight-team fields in each conference, a total of 20 teams will participate in the postseason. The NBA will use winning percentage to determine the standings. It's crazy to think that team coached by Gregg Popovich would end up 12th in the conference.
The being said, they do have some young players like Dejounte Murray, Jakob Poeltl, and Keldon Johnson to work with. On top of that, they have a few solid veteran players like Thaddeus Young and Derrick White. The San Antonio Spurs could exceed expectations if any of their young players take a massive leap. For now, I think the 12th seed is just about right given how competitive the conference is.
Like the Grizzlies, the New Orleans Pelicans have plenty of young talent. On top of that, they added players like Devonte Graham and Jonas Valanciunas. Statistically speaking, the Pelicans with Zion Williamson played better when Ball was on the court as opposed to without him.
The conference is stacked and the Pelicans didn't do much to significantly improve their overall team. It seems like the Portland Trail Blazers have the same team every year. They still have Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, and Jusuf Nurkic. Despite that, this is still a team that doesn't play much defense. Lillard came out and expressed his interest and loyalty to the Blazers.
Unfortunately for him, he didn't get much help this offseason. They're better off breaking this roster apart to get some value while they're worth something. This team simply has too much star power and too much depth to only win 53 games. While that is still a lot, it is significantly lower than what we predicted in our game-by-game season predictions. I get that LeBron James is getting up there in age and visually does not care as much about the regular season. However, let's not pretend like Anthony Davis isn't one of the 10 best players in the league and still is not even 30.
The Lakers added a third star in the mix in Russell Westbrook and did a great job of adding pieces around their stars. While many doubted it could be done, as it currently stands, the Lakers roster sits at 13 quality rotation players. The Nuggets loomed as a very plausible Finals representative in the Western Conference for much of last season. Denver's star guard suffered the injury in mid-April, removing the team's lead playmaker alongside Nikola Jokić just over a month before the start of the playoffs.
Denver was eliminated by the Suns in a second-round sweep shortly thereafter, closing the door on a championship chance in an imperfect West. The Lakers may have been the best team in the regular season most years, but they're just fifth in the West with a record of thanks to these critical absences. Speaking of Charlotte, we're loving the direction this team is headed in.
